Predicting October

With election season now in full swing and tonight’s vice presidential debate looming, it’s time we take a look at what else to expect this month.

Historically, October surprises have shaped many past elections. In the past we’ve seen Saddam Hussein found guilty right before mid term congress elections, George Bush’s drunk driving arrest before presidential elections, and even Foley’s scandal was right before an election.

The most famous though, was when George HW Bush and Reagan’s campaign manager convinced Iran not to release American hostages prior to the 1980 election. If I remember correctly, we paid them with aircraft tires.

So what will happen this October? Historically all of the surprises happen in favor of the party that needs the biggest boost. According to current polls, that’s the McCain camp. So let’s speculate:

1.) Bristol Palin will get married and it will be a highly publicized event with almost every major republican player present. This will happen within 1 to 2 weeks of the election, in an attempt to make it all memorable to everybody as they head to the polls.

2.) We’ll see another appearance from Osama Bin Laden. Many politicians (including John Kerry) seem to think that Bin Laden’s last October speech was all it took to cost Kerry the white house.

3.) Bush will make a major announcement regarding the war in Iraq. Newspapers have already reported that he delayed bringing some troops home for a time that would be more beneficial to McCain, but look for him to do something else drastic to shape public opinion.

Those are my “most likely to happens” Not only do I expect all of this to happen, but I also expect at least 1 or 2 more surprises.

What do you think will happen?

October 2nd, 2008